The color TV industry, once swept into the cold palace by investors, inadvertently ushered in the spring of recovery.
Although affected by factors such as the slowdown of macroeconomic growth and the downturn of the real estate market, the domestic color TV sales in 2008 decreased by nearly 10% compared with the same period last year, for domestic color TV enterprises, they are turning the crisis into an opportunity to expand the voice of the domestic LCD TV market.
The rise in market share and gross profit margin of domestic color TV enterprises is mainly due to the decline in the price of LCD panels. LCD panel, the upstream industry of LCD TV, began to reduce prices significantly in the second half of 2008, of which the price of 32 inch panel fell by about 50%. The price reduction of upstream panels has brought room for price reduction to domestic color TV sets, and domestic enterprises have also taken the initiative to reduce prices, thus rapidly increasing market share. International color TV enterprises are dragged down by their own panel business and European and American business, and the power to reduce prices is insufficient. This is the main reason for the increase of the share of domestic color TV enterprises.
Before 2008, the market share of domestic LCD TV had been maintained below 40% for a long time. The main reason is that domestic enterprises are constrained by the price of upstream LCD panels and dare not use too much low price strategy to occupy the market. Obviously, the sharp decline in panel prices in the second half of 2008 gave domestic enterprises this opportunity, and they also seized the opportunity in line with the current situation.
However, the fundamental problem has not been solved, and the domestic LCD TV industry is still subject to the upstream panel manufacturers. If the panel price rises, domestic enterprises will not be able to use the only useful means of market competition in the face of international enterprises - low price strategy.
In fact, LCD panels have begun to rebound this year. According to the domestic panel manufacturers, the panel price in the fourth quarter of last year has been below the cash cost. The panel manufacturers sell at a price lower than the cost price, mostly due to de inventory. On the one hand, panel manufacturers respond to the decline in demand by reducing production and stopping production. On the other hand, they sell products at low prices, which not only digest inventory, but also stimulate market demand. Although relevant institutions predict that the global consumer market will remain depressed in 2009 and consumer prices will be difficult to rise, panel prices will rebound with the decline of panel manufacturers' inventories and cost promotion.
Moreover, the rebound in panel prices now has a new support point - the Federal Reserve recently decided to expand the supply of dollars. Analysts believe that the US dollar will move towards a new round of depreciation cycle, which means that a new inflation cycle will also come as scheduled. The prices of international commodities, including oil and mineral resources, will rise, and the rise in raw material prices will push panel manufacturers to raise prices due to cost pressure.
To be sure, it is almost impossible for domestic enterprises to continue to enjoy the panel preferential price in the second half of last year. In the absence of brand support, this will cause fatal harm to domestic color TV enterprises. It can only be said that the recovery of color TV industry will be very short.
Therefore, it is too early to say that the domestic color TV industry will revive. However, we still have reason to believe in the powerful power of "made in China".
At present, the LCD color TV market is still in the rising range. In 2008, 11.77 million LCD TVs were sold in China, and the market penetration (accounting for the proportion of total TV sales) reached 32%. Analysts believe that the market penetration of flat-panel TVs in the European and American market has increased from less than 6% in 2004 to more than 90% last year. Drawing on the flat-panel process of the European and American TV market, it can be predicted that the scale growth of domestic LCD TVs will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 30% in the next three years.
If we open our eyes, take a long time span and focus on the once brilliant era of CRT color TV, we will find that the domestic CRT color TV industry rose in the 1990s with the large-scale introduction of color TV production lines and picture tube production lines. It is precisely because rainbow group and other companies have introduced multiple CRT picture tube production lines, which has solved the bottleneck of raw materials in the upstream of color TV, Only then can the domestic color TV industry be popularized to the middle and low-income class later.
Obviously, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other competent departments have reached a consensus on the development of the color TV industry, in which the establishment of a perfect flat-panel TV industry chain has become an important industrial policy. Moreover, domestic enterprises have also begun to use the power of the capital market to build China's LCD panel industry. The continuing global economic crisis has also given domestic enterprises the opportunity to build TFT-LCD production lines at low cost.
At present, BOE, SARFT and Longteng optoelectronics have put into operation three fifth generation TFT-LCD production lines. At the same time, several sixth generation TFT-LCD production lines are under construction in China. BOE, a domestic panel manufacturer, is preparing to build the eighth generation TFT-LCD production line.
It is reasonable to believe that with the improvement of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the once brilliant color TV industry will regain its competitiveness.
